In this NOAA image taken by the GOES satellite, Hurricane Erin crosses the Atlantic Ocean as it moves west on August 16, 2025 | Photo: NOAA via Getty Images
Saturday, August 16, 2025
By Lauren Floyd/Axios
Hurricane Erin has intensified to a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds at 160mph, per the National Hurricane Center.
Threat level: A new advisory Saturday from the hurricane center is forecasting "life-threatening surf and rip currents" for the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the East Coast next week.
Swells from Erin, which on Friday was at a Category 1, will impact the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Turks and Caicos through the weekend.
The latest: A tropical storm watch is in effect for St. Martin, St. Barthelemy and Sint Maarten. Erin was passing north of northern Leeward Islands at 2pm.
It's Category 5 designation for sustained winds at 157mph or higher indicates "catastrophic damage" on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
National Hurricane Center Director Mike Brennan said on Saturday, the islands are already "feeling the peripheral effects of this very powerful hurricane."
He said he's seeing signs of a secondary eyewall, meaning the intensity will "level out" but the storm will grow in size, "and that's going to have some implications for impacts farther down the line."
Brennan said he's expecting 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated areas of up to 6 inches across portions of the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands.
A flood watch is in effect through Monday evening for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra islands, and the Virgin Islands.
Zoom out: As Erin travels northward passing between the outer banks of North Carolina and Bermuda next Wednesday into Thursday, forecasters expect the tropical storm force winds from Erin to "more than double in size," Brennan said.
"The other thing we're very concerned about is the potential for surf and rip currents, dangerous conditions developing almost along the entire East Coast of the United States," Brennan said.
That is expected to begin Monday in Florida, head northward into the Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday and into the mid-Atlantic states on Wednesday and Thursday.
What we're watching: Peak wave heights could reach more than 50ft near the center of the storm, sending large wave breakers of more than 10ft along the coast.
"This is this exact case where we tend to see a lot of rip current fatalities," Brennan said. "The weather can be otherwise pretty nice to be at the beach, but the ocean can be very dangerous."
Editor's note: This story has been updated with the latest conditions.
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