Tuesday, November 5, 2024
By Tom O'Connor/Newsweek
As the United States begins to count the votes of what's expected to be a tight election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump on Tuesday, China is watching closely and preparing for how either outcome could shape what many in both nations view to be the world's most important bilateral relationship.
"The U.S. election is one of the most important events affecting not only the development of the United States in the next four years, but also globally, because the U.S. is also the number one country in economy, military, many aspects," Xu Qindao, a senior fellow at the Pangoal Institution in Beijing, told Newsweek.
"So that will have some effects, obviously, in every part of the world, including China," he said. "In that sense, the Chinese people and the Chinese government are watching closely what's going on in the U.S., the process, the differences in polices between the two candidates."
Among the two rivals, Trump has been particularly vocal on his views of China, frequently accusing the People's Republic of taking advantage of the U.S. and calling for tariffs of 60 percent or higher on all imports from the world's second-largest economy and the U.S.' number three trade partner. At the same time, he's also occasionally expressed admiration for Chinese President Xi Jinping and has a record of seeking deals with ideologically divergent leaders.
Harris has largely portrayed the relationship with Beijing as a competition, vowing to ensure that the U.S. would come out on top as the global leader of this century at a time when China was charging ahead in key sectors. While Harris backed President Joe Biden's efforts to restrict Chinese access to emerging technologies, she has also supported his calls for maintaining communication and avoiding confrontation.
With U.S.-China relations having recently thawed despite the deep-rooted differences that linger, Xu and other Chinese experts outlined what they saw as the potential risks and opportunities of either candidate emerging victorious in a bout viewed as one between stability and unpredictability.
"People in general agree that whoever will be the winner of the election, the U.S.-China relationship, obviously, is not in the best shape," Xu said. "We know that the U.S. has a very, let's say, strong policy on China.
"If the vice president gets elected, probably the U.S. will pursue a kind of similar policy in line with what the U.S. has right now under the Biden administration. But Trump could be a bit unpredictable, more radical sometimes."
Xu noted specifically the potential impact posed by Trump's promised tariffs, as well as the "hawkish" nature of the team he may assemble for his Cabinet. The presence of hard-liners in the White House, Xu said, could lead to escalations not only on trade but also security issues over disputed regions such as Taiwan and the South China Sea.
"We might see more challenges in the sense of even military conflicts," he said, "or even to the point of having a full war over the Taiwan issue."
China considers self-ruling Taiwan to be a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland through diplomacy or by force, if necessary. The U.S. has not maintained formal relations with Taiwan since 1979, when Washington switched diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing, but has boosted political and military support to the island.
Frictions have also worsened in the South China Sea, much of which China asserts falls within its maritime territory despite counterclaims from several other regional countries. Ongoing military tensions between China and the Philippines over disputed waters and land masses have been accompanied by greater engagement between Washington and Manila, which has deepened defense cooperation with the Pentagon.
But Xu identified an argument for possible benefits to China in a Trump win, particularly because of how his unpredictability is often ill-received among traditional U.S. allies and partners.
"I would say maybe countries like China, Japan, European countries, they have something in common," Xu said. "You all have to deal with this unpredictable, powerful person in the White House. So, that may give these countries something in common. It may be easier for them to handle their relationship."
At the same time, Harris is "seen as someone you can talk to, someone you can reason with," especially when it comes to areas of potential cooperation such as transnational crime, drug trafficking and climate change, Xu said. But this may come with a strengthening of U.S.-led efforts that could also harm Chinese interests in the long run.
"Under President Harris, you probably expect a more, let's say, well-coordinated approach or containment on China, for example, restriction of high-tech products or technology, and also a stronger alliance with the European countries, with some Asian countries, against China," Xu said. "That also makes the relationship more challenging."
Tong Zhao, a formerly Beijing-based senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace now conducting research in Washington, described similar stakes.
"Harris and her senior advisors have said little about China, but Beijing anticipates that she will largely continue Biden's China policy," Zhao told Newsweek. "This would involve deepening strategic competition with China while also striving to manage it, including selective efforts to explore cooperation on issues of mutual interest.
"Beijing is particularly concerned that Harris would continue to prioritize collaboration with U.S. allies and friendly countries, strengthening alliances that effectively counterbalance China's expanding ambitions in the Asia-Pacific and globally."
On the other hand, he argued, Trump "could further disengage from international agreements and commitments, opening up opportunities for China to expand its influence in areas where a power vacuum emerges."
Such a scenario bears serious risks for Beijing, however.
"Beijing is wary of a potential restart of the trade war under Trump, especially as China currently faces significant internal economic challenges and has less capacity to respond than it did during Trump's first term," Zhao said. "China also expects Trump to accelerate technology and supply chain decoupling efforts, which could threaten its economic growth and indirectly impact social and political stability.
"A particularly concerning scenario for Beijing would be if senior officials in a Trump administration openly questioned the legitimacy of China's political system, as happened in his first term. The Chinese ruling party's past anxieties over regime security played a significant role in the rapid deterioration of the bilateral relationship."
Preparing for Both Outcomes
As with past U.S. elections, China has officially expressed its neutrality and willingness to work with either side.
"The presidential election is the domestic affair of the United States," Chinese Embassy to the U.S. spokesperson Liu Pengyu told Newsweek on Tuesday. "China, committed to the principle of non-interference in others' internal affairs, will not interfere in the U.S.' presidential election. Developing China-U.S. relations is in the fundamental interest of our two peoples and two countries and meets the expectation of the international community.
"No matter who is elected as U.S. president, we hope the U.S. will work with us in the same direction, follow the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, and advance the steady, sound and sustainable growth of bilateral relations for the benefit of the two countries and the world at large."
Shen Shiwei, journalist and nonresident research fellow at Zhejiang Normal University's Institute of African Studies, emphasized the importance of improving ties in either post-election scenario.
"The issue of strategic perception is always fundamental to the China-U.S. relationship," Shen told Newsweek. "No matter who wins the election, stabilized and constructive bilateral relations are good for both sides.
"We know that the China-U.S. relationship is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. Whether China and the United States have a cooperative or confrontational relationship bears on the well-being of the Chinese and American peoples."
Having participated in a number of China-U.S. youth exchange programs this year, he felt that much of the "misjudgment and misperceptions" plaguing the relationship between the two nations was rooted in a lack of grassroots interaction. He called for "more on-site experiences here so they could have a better understanding of the country and bilateral relations."
Andy Mok, a Beijing-based geopolitical commentator and senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, said that China was looking to pursue a more open posture regardless of who emerged victorious in the election.
"Regardless of whether Vice President Harris or former President Trump wins, China is committed to its path of openness," Mok told Newsweek.
To illustrate this, he cited the words of Chinese Premier Li Qiang during an import expo held in Shanghai on Tuesday: "Opening up is a fundamental policy of China. No matter how the international situation changes, China will not deviate from its chosen path."
This endeavor, Mok argued, could be seen in China's decision to lower its tariff rate to 7.3 percent, below even the target rate of 9.8 percent. As such, he said, "China's actions underscore its dedication to greater global engagement and trade liberalization, irrespective of U.S. electoral outcomes."
High Stakes
Even with China looking to maintain its current strategy while dealing with either Harris or Trump, the U.S. election is seen by many as an event that could have sweeping effects on the bilateral relationship and beyond.
"I think it's enormous," Zichen Wang, a former journalist for China's official Xinhua News Agency now studying at Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs in New Jersey, told Newsweek. "Not just the United States or China, but the entire world is watching, and it is a very close election.
"I don't think anybody can tell with confidence who is going to win. And it's going to have drastically different implications for not just the American people, but also China-U.S. relations and the entire world."
Echoing Xu and Zhao, Wang felt Beijing had a clearer understanding of what a Harris victory would bring to the relationship, even if she has spoken less about China than her rival.
"Kamala Harris' position, especially in terms of China-U.S. relations, is seen as some sort of stabilization or continuity of Biden's China policy. I think it's a consensus in the Chinese expert community," Wang said. "And Donald Trump is simply too unpredictable to tell what he will implement if he wins the election."
Wang took note of the view that "if Donald Trump messes up the U.S. alliances, maybe that is good for China." But he felt this was too risky of a concept to prove an advantage in practice, particularly as Washington's allies in Asia and Europe did not necessarily get closer to Beijing under the previous Trump administration.
"I understand there is this perception that China would prefer chaos and want to see basically the United States falling apart because of Donald Trump, and I don't think that's the Chinese consensus," Wang said, noting that such instability "doesn't really benefit anybody."
Such was the case when the COVID-19 pandemic gripped the world in 2020 during the final year of Trump's presidency. Amid already deteriorating ties between Washington and Beijing, relations sunk even further as the Trump administration increasingly blamed China for the spread of the disease first detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
Now, Wang said he felt "Donald Trump still holds some grudge over COVID and he sort of blames China for costing him the election in 2020."
Still, even with ties having somewhat stabilized under Biden, Wang said that "Beijing is not very happy with China-U.S. relations as they are." He described the dynamic as an "uncomfortable coexistence, because China believes under Joe Biden and the Democratic administration, the U.S. policy is based on wrong strategic concepts."
In any case, Wang saw the most potentially volatile issue as being Taiwan, with which both Trump and Biden boosted ties during their respective tenures.
Trump took the unprecedented step of receiving a congratulatory call from then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen upon winning the 2016 election and went on to accelerate arms sales and official visits to the island. Biden continued building informal ties and also broke with past tradition by inviting Taipei's envoy to his 2021 inauguration and repeatedly vowing to come to the island's aid in the event of a military conflict with China.
In May, Tsai was succeeded by fellow Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te, also called William Lai, who has expressed even greater pro-independence sentiments, drawing anger from China. Washington has repeatedly argued no change in its approach to the issue, but its gradual shifts have been viewed in Beijing as a leading threat.
"The Chinese feeling is that the U.S. is not doing enough to restrain William Lai Ching-te," Wang said, "so hopefully there will be no wrong signals from any one of the winners of the election."
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